President Jens Weidmann pointed out that the experts were forecasting only a slow recovery when measured against the sudden slump experienced: “Economic activity is expected to return to its pre-crisis level only towards the end of 2022,” he noted. Nevertheless, he is not anticipating any major long-term harm for the economy’s potential output, albeit based on the assumption that a medical solution to combat the pandemic will be available in the middle of next year.  

According to the latest Bundesbank projections, the German economy will recover following a deep recession in the second quarter of this year. Economic output is estimated to shrink by 7% in 2020, but in the next two years, real gross domestic product (GDP) will then increase by 3 to 4% per year.

“German economic output underwent a massive decline in the first quarter of 2020 owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to contain it,” the Bundesbank notes in the current issue of the Monthly Report. Since these measures were still in place in April and substantial restrictions are likely to persist in spite of an easing in some cases, the experts expect economic output in the second quarter to be significantly lower still.

Short film from the media pact "Dealing with Money" for lower secondary school. Moderated by Philipp Walulis.

Short film from the media pact "Dealing with Money" for lower secondary school. Moderated by Philipp Walulis.

Short film from the media pact "Dealing with Money" for lower secondary school. Moderated by Philipp Walulis.

Short film from the media pact "Dealing with Money" for lower secondary school. Moderated by Philipp Walulis.

The Bundesbank posted a profit of €5.8 billion for the 2019 financial year. Following adjustment of the reserves, the Bank registered its highest distributable profit since 2008, at €5.9 billion. “Lower risk provisioning is the main reason for this strong rise in the profit for the year,” Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann explained.

Risks to the stability of Germany’s financial system have continued to build over the course of 2019. “An unexpected economic downturn and abrupt rise in risk premia could hit Germany’s financial system hard,” explained Bundesbank Vice-President Claudia Buch at the press conference on the Financial Stability Review.